Formula 1, French Grand Prix. Leclerc and Verstappen will leave Hamilton without an anniversary gift
The seven-time world champion will hold the 300th race in his career, but there is no chance of success.
On July 24, the Circuit Paul Ricard will host the French Grand Prix, the 12th round of the 2022 Formula 1 season. The start of the race is at 16:00 Moscow time. Bookmakers consider the Ferrari pilot Charles Leclerc to be the main favorite. You can bet on Monegasque success in bookmakers with odds of 2.32. And the victory of his main rival, the reigning world champion Max Verstappen, is estimated at 2.37.
Prediction with odds of 9.20 for the French Grand Prix.
Bookmaker odds for the Formula 1 race – Paul Ricard on July 24, 2022
Bookmakers do not expect a tight fight: the winner’s lead at the finish line for more than 10 seconds is quoted as 2.20, and less than 5 seconds – for 2.80. The winner of the pole position is given odds of 2.07, and odds of 1.40 are that he will remain the leader after the first lap. You can bet on the absence of a safety car in the race for 2.25.
Analysis and forecast for the Formula 1 race – Paul Ricard in France (24.07.2022)
On Sunday, Lewis Hamilton will hold the 300th race in Formula 1. Before the current Mercedes star, only five pilots out of 777 participants in all the years of the World Cup have conquered this mark. An impressive and significant achievement. And it will be beautiful if the Englishman celebrates the anniversary with a victory or at least a podium. However, it is not certain that it will work.
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Not a single pilot from the 300 Races club celebrated the anniversary with a high result. Fernando Alonso finished eighth, Rubens Barrichello, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen finished ninth. Michael Schumacher had an accident and dropped out, and was driving 11th before the retirement. And in the future, only Alonso was on the podium – only once in third place. In a sense, the anniversary is a sad harbinger of the decline of a career.
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Lewis Hamilton did not escape the decline in the results for the 300th race, albeit not without the help of Mercedes, which built a bad car for the 2022 season. For the first time in 15 years in F-1, the Briton did not win any of the inaugural 11 races of the championship and finished on the podium only four times. And his best achievement was the third place.
Yes, Mercedes is progressing, the car drives much better than at the beginning of the season. After all, before the Canadian Grand Prix on June 19, the seven-time champion had only been on the podium once. But he finished three of the next four races in the top three. Already not bad, but still the leaders of Ferrari and Red Bull are still far away, so we can only dream of victories.
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The Mercedes had high hopes for the upcoming race at Paul Ricard. The team brought a new version of the W13 bottom, updated the nose cone, brake air ducts. Plus, the asphalt on the French track is smooth, without bumps, so there should be a minimum of vertical buildup on straight lines. It seems that all the ingredients for further progress are evident.
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But the beginning of the weekend turned out to be disappointing for the team. Lewis Hamilton ended Friday’s practice in fifth place, 0.9 seconds behind the leader of the day, Charles Leclerc, in the Ferrari. Yes, and George Russell did not go far – the fourth with a lag of 0.7 seconds. Although there were Fridays in the previous part of the season, when the Mercedes pilots were in the top three, and even in first place.
It seems that the “silver arrows” simply do not have speed on Paul Ricard. According to the team’s calculations, they are on average 0.7 seconds slower than Ferrari and Red Bull: the first lose in corners, the other on straight lines. And they lose time in all three sectors. For 52 laps of the race, such a gap will result in a loss of 36 seconds – a whole abyss.
There is another training session ahead, but it is unlikely that Mercedes will be able to win back such a handicap. The good news is that all other teams are 0.8 seconds behind. So, it seems that Hamilton in the anniversary race will have to fight only with a teammate, well, hope for the problems of the leaders. Let’s check the bet “Lewis Hamilton finishes below third place” for 1.60.
Forecast and betting for the Formula 1 French Grand Prix July 24, 2022
The statistics of other members of the club “300 races” and the overall balance of power is not in favor of Lewis Hamilton. In terms of pure speed, it is unrealistic to keep up with the pilots of Red Bull and Ferrari. The British will not have to rely on the help of the weather, since the probability of rain in qualifying and the race is 0%. There are, of course, crazy races in F-1 without rain, but not on Paul Ricard.
The track is wide, with huge departure zones, so there are almost no incidents here, and breakdowns too. For the last two races, there was only one retirement here, and a year ago, all the starters reached the finish line. So Hamilton should not count on the problems of Verstappen, Leclerc, Perez and Sainz. The maximum in his 300th Grand Prix, in our opinion, will be fourth place.
Bid: Lewis Hamilton finishes below third in 1.60.
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