Supercomputer forecast for the RPL tour. The league leader has the lowest probability of winning

Kirill Zakatchenko

Kirill Zakatchenko

The league leader has the lowest probability of winning

Will we see again how Zenit takes out another opponent?

The Five Thirty Eight supercomputer estimated the probability of each outcome in the matches of the 5th round of the RPL. The computer is based on the so-called Soccer Power Index, which reflects the strength of teams in attack and defense. Particularly noteworthy are the high numbers of Zenit, Spartak and Orenburg.



The supercomputer predicted the RPL final table.  Spartak is not even in the top three
The supercomputer predicted the RPL final table. Spartak is not even in the top three

Fakel – Ural

The 5th round of the RPL opened with a match in Voronezh. For the second time in the season, a goalless draw was recorded in the league. Ural, which fired Igor Shalimov a few days ago, finally scored the first point. The Voronezh club has slightly more points, but still no victories. By the way, the probability of a draw was 26%, and the victory of Fakel was 45%.

Lokomotiv — Wings of the Soviets

The railroad workers started the new RPL season disgustingly. No wins, two points, third from the bottom in the table. In addition, Loko scored only three goals (only Ural had a worse result), and conceded 11 (the worst result together with Torpedo and Fakel). Despite all this, the supercomputer believes that the probability of Lokomotiv winning the game with Wings is 47%. The success of the “Wings” is estimated at 28%, a draw – at 24%.

The railway workers started the new RPL season disgustingly

The railway workers started the new RPL season disgustingly

Photo: Dmitry Golubovich, Championship

Zenit – CSKA

The probability of winning the champion is estimated at 68%. And this is despite the injury to Claudinho and the serious status of the opponent (the Moscow club is now leading the table). No other RPL team on the tour has such a high figure. However, statistics are on the side of Zenit, because CSKA has not won in St. Petersburg since 2011. According to the supercomputer, the probability of the army team winning is only 13%. This is the worst figure among all the teams on the tour.

Dynamo – Krasnodar

The Moscow club started off briskly under the guidance of a new coach. So far, the blue and white have not suffered a single defeat under Slavis Jokanovic and scored eight points. It could have been more if not for the comeback of Fakel – the Voronezh club escaped defeat with 0:2 and 2:3. The probability of Dynamo winning in the upcoming game is 47%, Krasnodar – 30%, draw – 23%. By the way, the Bulls won two victories in the last two rounds and scored a total of six goals.

Dynamo started the season with a new head coach

Dynamo started the season with a new head coach

Photo: Dmitry Golubovich, Championship

Khimki – Akhmat

The Moscow region team is the favorite of this match according to the supercomputer. The probability of Khimki winning is 43%, Akhmat is 30%, and a draw is 23%. The Moscow Region club will play the first match after the coaching reshuffle. Sergey Yuran left his post, and instead of him the team was headed by Nikolai Pisarev, who is part of the coaching staff of Valery Karpin in the Russian national team. This season, Khimki scored all their points (seven) in the Moscow region. Akhmat has only played one away match so far and lost.



Did he offer Karpin an agreement or didn't he let the investor's son play?  5 versions of Yuran's dismissal
Did he offer Karpin an agreement or didn’t he let the investor’s son play? 5 versions of Yuran’s dismissal

Orenburg – Torpedo

The probability of Orenburg winning is 49%. This is the third highest result among all teams of the tour. The RPL rookie won only one victory this season, but he did it just in his own field. The probability of success of “Torpedo” is 27%, a draw – 24%. It is possible that this match will be the last for Alexander Borodyuk as a coach of the car factory. So far, his team is in last place in the table.



The new limit unexpectedly affected the RPL clubs.  Most legionnaires - the newcomer to the league!
The new limit unexpectedly affected the RPL clubs. Most legionnaires – the newcomer to the league!

Pari NN – Rostov

The only match of the 5th round of the RPL, where the guest team plays the role of a favorite. The probability of success of “Rostov” – 39%, “Pari NN” – 35%, a draw – 26%. The team of Valery Karpin has not yet suffered a single defeat. She won twice at home and drew twice away. The club from Nizhny Novgorod has never won, but only played one match at home. By the way, he was very memorable, because Pari NN got away from defeat in the game with CSKA (2:2), scoring twice after the break.

Spartak – Sochi

According to the supercomputer, the red-whites have a 54% chance of winning. Only Zenit has a higher percentage in this round. Spartak got off to a great start in the new season and now shares the lead in the championship with CSKA (both teams have 10 points each). At the same time, the red-whites played at home only once before the 5th round, but then they defeated Orenburg (4:1). Sochi is only one point behind the Moscow club and for the third time at the start of the season will play with the capital club. The team of Vadim Garanin beat Torpedo (3:1), but lost to CSKA – 0:3.

The probability of winning red-white is 54%

The probability of winning red-white is 54%

Photo: Dmitry Golubovich, Championship

***
If we talk about the prediction of the supercomputer for the championship title, then Zenit has the most preferable chances. At the same time, the computer puts Spartak in second place, and CSKA in third. In the top five there was also a place for Dynamo and Sochi. Torpedo has the highest probability of relegation so far, the situation is not much better for Ural.

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