The supercomputer predicted the RPL final table. Spartak is not even in the top three

Kirill Zakatchenko

Kirill Zakatchenko

Supercomputer predicted the RPL final table

According to the algorithm, not all Moscow teams will retain their place in the elite division.

Supercomputer company FiveThirtyEight predicted the winner of this season in the RPL. There were no surprises here. The machine not only estimated the probability of each of the 16 clubs winning the title, but also distributed them according to their places in the table. The so-called Soccer Power Index was taken as a basis, which reflects the strength of teams in attack and defense.



Spartak loses forward, Karpin - legionnaires.  RPL transfers you might have missed
Spartak loses forward, Karpin – legionnaires. RPL transfers you might have missed

Champion

According to the supercomputer, Zenit will win the title for the fifth time in a row. However, the vast majority of experts think so, given that the St. Petersburg club has retained almost all foreign players. The probability that Zenit will finish the season on the first line is estimated at 57%. This is a fairly high figure, because the closest pursuers have a chance of less than 10%.

According to the supercomputer, Zenit will score 64 points and end the season with a goal difference of +38. The probability that blue-white-blue will take the second place is estimated at 19%, the third – at 9%. There is also a very crazy, but extremely unlikely option with a direct departure of the team from the RPL. This probability is less than 1%.

FC Zenit players

FC Zenit players

Photo: Elena Razina, Championship

Prize-winners

The company “Zenith” in the top three winners will be CSKA and Sochi. The supercomputer, guided by its own algorithms, believes that both will score 50 points each. Based on these data, Zenit will be ahead of the closest representatives by an impressive 14 points. The probability that CSKA or Sochi will take the title is only 9%, the probability of their direct relegation from the RPL is 3%.



CSKA Fedotov began to please.  But there's a big problem
CSKA Fedotov began to please. But there’s a big problem

Spartak will be higher than Dynamo and Lokomotiv

The supercomputer puts Spartak in fourth place, Krasnodar in fifth, Dynamo in sixth, Lokomotiv in seventh. The probability of the championship of “Spartak” – 6%, “Krasnodar” and “Dynamo” – 5%, “Locomotive” – ​​3%.

Spartak - Dynamo

Spartak – Dynamo

Photo: Edgar Breshchanov, “Championship”

According to the supercomputer, it is the red-whites who will make the most significant jump in the table compared to last season. The capital club finished the previous championship in 10th place, and according to the results of the current one, it will be in fourth place.

Torpedo will be relegated to the First League

Fans of “Torpedo” will not like the forecast from the supercomputer, because it sends the Moscow team to the penultimate place. According to the algorithms, Torpedo will stay in the elite division for only one year. The probability of direct relegation of the capital club is 47%, “Orenburg” – 51%. This figure is lower for Fakel (38%), Pari NN (37%), Ural (31%). The rest of the teams are doing even better. According to the data of the supercomputer, clubs from Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod will finish the season in the joint zone.

The final table of the season according to the supercomputer

Place Club Glasses
one “Zenith” 64
2 CSKA fifty
3 “Sochi” fifty
four “Spartacus” 47
5 “Krasnodar” 46
6 “Dynamo” 46
7 “Locomotive” 43
eight “Wings of Soviets” 42
9 “Rostov” 41
ten “Akhmat” 39
eleven “Khimki” 36
12 “Ural” 34
13 “Paris NN” 32
fourteen “Torch” 32
fifteen “Torpedo” 29
16 “Orenburg” 28

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